// RevOps
Forecast
Also known as Sales Forecast · Revenue Forecast · Bookings Forecast
The bookings number leadership commits to the board for the current period, a range, a confidence, and the judgment behind it.
In depth
A sales forecast is the number the CRO signs their name to. It is not the pipeline, not the quota, not the plan, it is the disciplined, deal-by-deal answer to the question: how much will we book this period, and how sure are we? A good forecast is a range with a stated confidence, built bottom-up from deal-level judgment (commit, best case, pipeline), reconciled against a top-down capacity model (reps × ramp × productivity), and pressure-tested against historical conversion by stage, source and segment. AI-assisted forecasting narrows the range and flags the deals most likely to slip, but it does not remove the human judgment, it changes what humans spend their judgment on.
Formula
Forecast = Σ (Deal Value × P(close in period))
In practice, most orgs replace the probability with a categorical judgment (Commit / Best Case / Pipeline) and roll those buckets up, because rep-supplied percentages are notoriously miscalibrated.
Why it matters
01It's the number the board, investors and public markets underwrite. Miss it twice and the CFO or CRO usually leaves.
02It sets hiring, marketing spend and cash runway for the next two quarters. A soft forecast that later firms up is cheaper than a hard forecast that misses.
03The discipline of forecasting, not the number itself, is where deal coaching, pipeline hygiene and rep accountability actually happen.
Common pitfalls
Sandbagging
Reps under-call to over-deliver. Detected by systematically low commit-to-close ratios (<85%). Fix: hold reps to a symmetric accuracy target, not just 'don't miss'.
Happy ears
Reps forecast what the champion told them, not what the economic buyer will do. Fix: require EB confirmation to move to Commit.
Stage inflation
Deals get pushed to later stages to justify pipeline coverage, without the exit criteria being met. Fix: enforce stage-gate evidence in CRM.
Hero forecasts
The CRO overrides a soft roll-up with a personal number to protect the board relationship. Works once. Destroys trust when it misses.
Forecasting the pipeline, not the deals
Applying an average close rate to total pipeline value. Fine for a 300-rep org; catastrophic for anyone with deal concentration.
FAQ
Is the forecast the same as the quota?
No. Quota is the target set at the start of the year. Forecast is the rolling, in-quarter estimate of what will actually book. A rep at 60% to quota can still have a credible forecast, the two numbers answer different questions.
Should the forecast be a single number or a range?
Internally, always a range: low (commit), high (commit + best case). Externally to the board, a single 'commit' number with a stated best case. Boards that receive only a single point number learn nothing about the risk profile.
How much should AI-generated forecasts weigh vs. rep-called?
Treat AI forecasts as a second opinion, not a replacement. In 2026, best-in-class orgs blend them: the AI call anchors the low end of the range and flags deals to inspect; the rep call sets the high end. Divergence >15% triggers a deal-by-deal review.
When does the forecast lock?
For public SaaS, the CFO typically locks the external forecast by week 6 of the quarter. Internally, reps continue updating weekly until the last day. The lock is a communication event, not a data event.